Two Plus Two Older Archives - View Single Post

Paxosmotic · #70 10-26-2005, 07:40 PM

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, SB calls, Hero checks.

Flop: (4 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, MP2 folds, SB folds.

Turn: (3 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero...

Bets. If your opponent was calling your flop bet with top pair, then you will hear about it now on the expensive street when he raises. But if your opponent did not have top pair on the flop, he might fold, fearing that you have made trips. Checking would be bad against one opponent, because you are telling him that you are drawing, and he will know to stay with you. It is a lot harder to bluff the river successfully if you check the turn.

In summarium : Fold equity

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls, BB checks.

Flop: (4.5 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero...

Checks. You have a flush. If your opponent doesn't have a flush, he will fold if you bet. This does not help you if he doesn't have any outs. If your flush is good now, it will be just as good at the river. With two pair or a set, the opponent likely would have shown strength before now by either betting or raising on the flop or betting the turn. Check, and plan on calling if he bets at the river. Your check might even induce him to bluff on the end.

In summarium : WA/WB (so to speak)

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG+2 calls, Hero raises, CO calls, Button calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (9.5 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, CO folds, Button folds, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img](2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 raises, Hero...

Folds. When you get raised on the turn, you are almost always beat when having one pair. (On occasion, you are up against a tricky player who likes to semi-bluff draws on the expensive street.) There are 8.75 bets in the pot and it costs you 1 to call. If your opponent is raising on aces-up, then the number of outs you have depends on his second pair. With aces over nines, you have three outs (the kings). With aces over sevens, you have six outs (kings and nines). With aces over treys, you have nine outs (any king, nine, or seven). So one might conclude that on average you have about six outs, which is a 7-to-1 shot, and therefore you have a call. However, if your opponent does have two pair, you do not know which two they are, and thus may lose additional money on the river (ie if you river a 9 for two pair, which fills him up). Furthermore, your opponent may have a set, in which case you are drawing dead. Since he cold called your preflop raise, he is more likely to have done this with 99, 77, 33, or A9 than any other holding. In this hand, narrowing villain down to A9s, A7s, A3s, 99, 77, and 33 reduces our equity to 4.72%, well below what is required to see the river. Even if we add any Ace-King to his holdings, since we're drawing to a chop we don't have odds to see the river.

In summarium : When implied odds aren't nearly as strong as you'd think.