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Basically, I think Phil played this hand like a moron.

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I guess the rest of the play by Phil was OK since he now has the deck totally crippled on the turn

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I'm assuming by 'this hand' you mean 'the flop'

In my defence I think I the flop was played perfectly. If I bet now after a PF pot raise everyone is folding except AJ or JJ. I make a net gain of $3.50. I WANT a low to catch a draw on the turn, that's exactly how I'll make money out of this hand. If a low card comes on the turn, and I pot, I may well get one or two callers with a low draw, which are <50% to hit. Additionally if a J boats up I may get a caller.

Let's have a look at the E.V. of a turned low draw:

Against 1 caller:

Pot flop, low draw folds, net $3.50
Check flop, pot turn, low draw calls:
- 50% low hits: I net $1.00
- 50% low misses: I net $8.50

Average net gain by waiting: $1.25

Against 2 callers (which is likely given the preflop calls):

low card, pot turn:
- 50% low hits: I net $6 + 1/2 of the river action (likely all in)
- 50% low misses: I net $13.50

Average net gain by waiting: ~$7 + river action

There is also the possibility of a J boating up on the turn, a straight hitting, etc. Giving free cards to quad jacks or a royal flush is a remote possibility, but the -EV of that is less than $1 given the long odds. Checking behind is the correct play imo.

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Basically, I think Phil played this hand like a moron.

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Waiting for your apology. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]