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Old 10-25-2005, 10:37 PM
MrWookie47 MrWookie47 is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: ^^ That wookie
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Default Re: How\'s Your Turn Play?

In white no more!

1. Bet. I don't think he has a K. I think decent TAGs raise this flop with a decent K, and there aren't that many indecent K's that he might have here. Consequently, I think we take this down often enough compared to the times we're forced to pay too much to draw.

2. Check to induce a river bluff. There isn't much value in a bet, and I sure as hell don't want to be c/r'd and have to strongly consider folding.

3. I really want stats here to decide if I should 3bet or call down. I need more info to decide how often he has AJ- (non-two pair) versus how often he has A9, A7, A3, 99, 77, or 33. The tighter and more passive he is preflop, the more likely he is to have AJ and at the expense of 33, A3, and 77. It does increase the likelihood of 99. Crudely, if we put him on A8s, A7o/s, A9o/s, AJo, ATo, or 77 (assuming 99 and better A's would be raise preflop and worse A's would be folded either preflop or on the flop) that's 9+9+3=21 hands that beat us, 3+12+12=27 we beat, making this a 3bet. If you give him a larger PFR stat, though, then this quickly looks like a call down.

Edit (also in white no more):

Actually, I think giving him A7o is a little loose. I think a better estimate would be 9+3+3=15 hands that beat us. I may have also been overly generous with AJo and ATo on the other side. Giving them half credit turns this into a call down in spite of nixing A7o. With no stats given, I think that this is more reasonable. Calling down is better.
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