Re: preflop equity
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I voted cap in every circumstance as well.
I think it's a simply logical thing: If I'm playing here, it's because I think I generally have an equity edge against the 8+ way field. If I have an equity edge, I probably should cap it because everyone is going to call the extra bets and I like money and capping might have some tactical advantages like letting me see the turn for free if my opponents check to me.
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You think you are going to see the turn for free 9 handed??
I did a sample situation vs. a set of some possible hands:
Ac Qs
Jc Jd
Kh Qd
2h 2s
5s 6c
7c 8c
ts 7s
As 3s
Then compared to the 4 above hands ... (You need 11.1% equity to make your play worthwhile ....
Jh Th 35736 12.84 237362 85.30 5158 1.85 <font color="red"> 0.137</font>
Qs Ac 20206 7.26 253909 91.25 4141 1.49 0.080
Jc Jd 32171 11.56 243110 87.37 2975 1.07 0.121
Qd Kh 35796 12.86 241058 86.63 1402 0.50 0.131
2s 2h 41007 14.74 237067 85.20 182 0.07 0.147
5s 6c 30117 10.82 247957 89.11 182 0.07 0.108
8c 7c 37689 13.54 237100 85.21 3467 1.25 0.141
Ts 7s 12526 4.50 260080 93.47 5650 2.03 0.055
As 3s 20606 7.41 254729 91.54 2921 1.05 0.079
7d 6d 39437 14.17 233480 83.91 5339 1.92 <font color="red"> 0.150</font>
Qs Ac 21652 7.78 251980 90.56 4624 1.66 0.086
Jc Jd 52189 18.76 225939 81.20 128 0.05 0.188
Qd Kh 35146 12.63 241426 86.76 1684 0.61 0.129
2s 2h 35271 12.68 242857 87.28 128 0.05 0.127
5s 6c 16463 5.92 258734 92.98 3059 1.10 0.064
8c 7c 31288 11.24 244560 87.89 2408 0.87 0.115
Ts 7s 18854 6.78 256994 92.36 2408 0.87 0.071
As 3s 18121 6.51 257067 92.39 3068 1.10 0.070
9s 9c 40415 14.52 237764 85.45 77 0.03 <font color="red"> 0.145</font>
Qs Ac 17327 6.23 257289 92.46 3640 1.31 0.069
Jc Jd 53094 19.08 225085 80.89 77 0.03 0.191
Qd Kh 35586 12.79 241193 86.68 1477 0.53 0.130
2s 2h 31567 11.34 246612 88.63 77 0.03 0.113
5s 6c 31395 11.28 246784 88.69 77 0.03 0.113
8c 7c 28505 10.24 246561 88.61 3190 1.15 0.108
Ts 7s 17792 6.39 257274 92.46 3190 1.15 0.070
As 3s 15822 5.69 260194 93.51 2240 0.81 0.061
4s 4c 37947 13.64 240142 86.30 167 0.06 <font color="red"> 0.136</font>
Qs Ac 15505 5.57 258989 93.08 3762 1.35 0.062
Jc Jd 53522 19.23 224567 80.71 167 0.06 0.192
Qd Kh 35320 12.69 241353 86.74 1583 0.57 0.130
2s 2h 33208 11.93 244881 88.01 167 0.06 0.119
5s 6c 25612 9.20 252477 90.74 167 0.06 0.092
8c 7c 31124 11.19 243785 87.61 3347 1.20 0.118
Ts 7s 24347 8.75 250562 90.05 3347 1.20 0.093
As 3s 14729 5.29 261181 93.86 2346 0.84 0.057
I just made up some hands, and this is not scientific, but versus my made up hands it looks like all the hands have sufficient equity to continue. However we are talking MINOR EDGES and to overcome the variance of such playing will take 100,000's of hands due to the large pots and infrequency of this time of event. However, I agree that I was wrong in saying that these were not +EV moves. I still will fold 44 and 67s though. It can still be difficult to play those postflop even if you have the equity (ie. you are not calling to the river with 44 hoping to spike your set, therefore you lose some equity if you don't flop it)
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