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Old 10-25-2005, 02:30 PM
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Default Re: Does this move have + EV? or am I spewing?

[ QUOTE ]
Fold the turn. The donk bet is a Ten, probably T9 or T8.

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I agree that the donkbet is a T, but you have current odds to draw out on her hand. Start with the assumption that you have 5 clean outs against MP1. If you call and get calls behind you, I would discount the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] as an out, meaning that you have 10.5:1 to draw out.

You are getting 9.5:1 on your turn call. This is good enough for a call, yet may not be good enough for a raise. If you call and get at least a call behind you, you techincally got 10.5:1 on your call, making it an okay call for your 4-outer. I suppose the problem is that if the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] does hit, then you will likely end up losing another bet on the river.

Anyway I think this is a good call on the turn.
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