Re: Flop overbet
Ok, I am getting tired of editing the quotes in this tiny box so I'm just going to try and reply to your points in order here. Is there anyways to change the size of the reply window? Its ridiculously small.
1. I think you just need to reread my whole paragraph here. Your numbers being correct has nothing to do with my point and I think you know that. Yes you are a 4-1 favorite over AK. You are also a 96% dog against 89o, 95% dog to 34 & 48o, a 71% dog to 56 & 67o, and an 88% dog to JJ, QQ, KK, AA, 77, 66, & 55.
Let me try to rephrase my point anyways.
You are a favorite over AK. You don't know you are up against AK. The 75% advantage you have over AK doesn't make up for the % of time that I believe you are behind in this hand. In the long term, in situations similar to this, you are behind a high enough % of the time that folding incorrectly in this case is not a big mistake. Added to the % of time you are behind is the % of the time he will suck out when he does have a drawing hand like AK or A8.
In fact, folding to big bets with small overpairs with no reads on bad flops like this is not only not a big mistake, its correct.
2. My point here ties in directly with the point I made just above here. First, I apologize, you are not a slight dog in any cases, he is. You are a 60% favorite over 88, a 56% favorite over Ad8d, a 59% favorite over A8o. In case you are going to say +ev is +ev, I want to remind you that calling and hoping for a +ev coinflip is -ev. Even if you add pure bluffs and misclicks to your list of hopes, its -ev.
3. [ QUOTE ]
I'm not in the habit of folding just because my hand is marginal, nor of getting involved because I have a strong hand.
[/ QUOTE ]
Backwards. Folding marginal hands in big pots and getting involved with big hands in big pots is a winning strategy [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]. Getting involved in extremely marginal situations like this one isn't profitable in small stakes poker because you're not going to be right often enough. It isn't necessary either. You have such a huge edge against most of your opponents in small stakes NL games so what is the point in tangling yourself up in messes like this one?
As to what hands I think he has, I think its either a straight or a bigger overpair/set/2pair that is scared of seeing four to the straight + might think he can get a weak call from someone who thinks he is bluffing by over-representing a straight...although I seriously doubt he is thinking that deep. I can really see 88 here too. Bluffs and misclicks are a possibility here, but I don't think they are seen here from an unknown often enough to play for your whole stack. From the looks of the TT vs your AA hand, he seems to overplay his good hands. The problem is that most hands I think he is betting huge on the flop are ahead of your TT.
4. I have already read the article you referenced, but the overbet here isn't good. I rarely bet small when I have the nuts, but this isn't a good time to overbet. If its a bluff, then how do you defend risking 32 to win 7? If he keeps risking 32 to win 7 then he'll be broke in no time. What kind of equity does he have if called? You mean folding equity on the turn?
5. You're absolutely right when you say that getting AA was a better spot but its not an argument against getting involved. However, I didn't have that or any other previous hands in mind when I made that comment. Everyone seems to hate the phrase 'wait for a better spot', but this is a situation where I think you need to wait for a better spot to try and get his stack. Sometimes poker is a game of patience.
Lastly, where are you going with this hand? I hope your not raising on the flop. If you call, what are you doing on the turn card? What about the river? Or are you hoping that it goes call, check, check, check, check?
In conclusion: I didn't intend to get so detailed on this hand so I apologize for the over-analysis. Honestly, I think its a pretty standard fold and not worth the trouble but you have my reasoning so I hope I've made a good case for folding.
PS - Alan Schoonmaker had a great article back in May that I strongly recommend. It was about making posts asking for advice and then making sure to keep an open mind when recieving this advice. Its been taken down, but I have it saved and could PM it to you if he didn't mind. I have taken quite a bit of time to make these posts in an effort to offer helpful advice.
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