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Old 10-25-2005, 10:57 AM
schwza schwza is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2003
Posts: 113
Default Re: nut flush hand from Stars $10 rebuy

haven't read the thread....

pre-flop: fine.
flop: i would push here. it's a big bet, but a pot-sized raise would be up to 10k + 31k = 41k, so making it 73k is not crazy. blinds need Q6/K6/KQ/66, and villain needs KQ/66 to call (or trapping QQ/KK/AA/AK, but AA/AK might fold). and obviously if you do get called, you're not in horrible shape.

my problem with the flat call is that you look like you're on a flush draw. if villain has a hand like KJ, i think he's shutting down pretty quickly when the flush card gets there. what was your plan if BB reraised? his hand is looking less and less like 1 pair, but you still have a monster draw.

if you push and win the pot, you increase your stack by ~21k, over 25%. i'd try to do that.

turn: villain could have a pretty wide range right now. it includes 66 and KQ, but the most likely hands are Kx and (less likely) Qx. if he has Qx, you hate to check. villain has 10 outs to beat you, and 8 spades kill your action (if he doesn't have the J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]). also, if he has a small flush and the board double pairs, you're gonna kick yourself.

i bet here. he has 49k left in a pot of 32, i'll bet 18k. the downside of this line is that he might get away from Kx where he would put in one more bet on the river. but Kx still has 4 outs, and there's no guarantee he'll fold to a bet on the turn (or that he'll call one on the river, especially if another [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] hits.) and yes, btw, i am very willing to go broke here.

river: i never say this, but i'd hit him with the min raise. you want Kx to call a bet, and there's not much more he's gonna call. you lose some value vs. Qx, but Kx is more likely. and call a push.
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