[elindauer]

I agree with your analysis completely. At least, I did when Chrissy recapped this hand to me and I had only thought about it a few seconds. The turn looked ugly but I liked the bet / call line, and my first instinct was to check-raise the river.

After a little more thought though, I decided that check-call is best on the turn, and betting the river is mandatory and not close. Here's how:


hand range for the typical 3-bettor: AA-TT, AK-AQ, maybe AJ, maybe KQs, outside shot at lower pocket pair.

Now, after he sees the action flop of AKJ and only checks and calls, it sure doesn't look like he has hit the flop super hard. In fact, he's played his hand like he's on some kind of pair + straight draw, right? So I'd say his hand range looks like this:

AQ, QQ, maybe KQs, TT all full value

AA, AK, JJ significantly discounted due to his passivity on the flop.

Since I hold KK, the combinations are interesting and revealing:

AQ - 12
QQ - 6
TT - 6

AA - 3
AK - 3
JJ - 3

In other words, most of his draws are draws containing a Q hoping for a T, and even if we give hands like AA and JJ full weight, he's a favorite to make a straight if the turn is a ten!

So, when the ten hits, and his hand range is so full of queens, I think checking and calling may be best. It's important to note that we may still get a bet in with the best hand, as he might bet, say, TT if we check, and that it's highly unlikely we can make anything fold that is going to draw out.

Ok, so on to the river. We've perhaps tripped up a bit by betting the turn, and he's confirmed our fears by raising a Q. But we just called the turn, so he can virtually know with certainty that we do not have a Q. What does he put us on? Something like:

AA, KK, JJ, TT, AK right? Well, every one of these hands just drew out. If we check, he should easily check behind. In fact, if we bet, he can practically fold! Really, what can he beat?

So, check/call the turn, bet the river. Checking the turn is close, betting the river is mandatory.

our 2 cents.
E & C