[slydeni]

wow-- great post!

my thoughts:

1. I'd love to know what your table image was here maybe what kind of hands you have been showing down. Does villain see you as tricky? loose? tight? This info. would help tip the scales of this very borderline decision.

2. I think on the turn I am betting a 1/2 to 2/3 pot bet. I am thinking this:: "he calls $40 and checks blind. He could be on a draw with 7,8 (20% of the time maybe?) ; he could have a whopper (aa, kk,qq, 55)-- maybe 50% of the time?; or maybe a bluff set-up to chk rz later 20% of time? ; and maybe same hand as me (KQ), 10% of time? "

now... with this...I like betting the turn to gain more info about this situation i am in. if he pulls the chk rz trigger here...its easier to get away from with just tptk. with us checking - he may have had his plans foiled and wants to try again on river (especially if he thinks yer aggressive and will bet the river).

so what am i sayin?
i think i woulda bet the turn, and folded to a chk rz all in move there. with the way it was played, i woulda checked again on the river to avoid this kinda situation.

but with the way it all went down...I would bite my tongue, clinch my muscles, and prolly lay this one down. Yah theres a decent chance you got him, but I think if this is replayed a 10000 times... yer EV is gonna be slightly negative here.

My ultimate guess: he has same hand as you OR a set.

anyone have any thoughts on my thoughts?

GREAT POST, thanks for typing it up bro-

sly