Re: Hand against LAG
Okay, lets do some hand-reading here.
flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
IMO a lag c/r's this flop nearly always with any 4, 6, or FD. A Q may or may not, as he may be check-calling to c/r the turn.
Given that he smoothcalls the flop, he's either got a monster(rare) or most likely some unpaired junk hand / maybe backdoors that decided to peel the flop. Occasionally he'll have hit the A, but not often. Sometimes he'll have a PP too, or have picked up the flush draw.
Now, we're giving between 2-9 outs a free card on the river. in this tiny pot it costs us between .1-.5 of a BB. IMHO this type of LAG will bet the river with nearly any 2 after we check through the turn, so we snap off lots of bluffs which more than make up for the lost equity from the free card.
Now he bets the river - we expected that. We've improved, so we've got an easy value raise since 2pair that was trapping/ a queen will pay off. Additionally, we look FOS because he'd expect us to bet the Ace on the turn if we had it, so he'll 3bet worse aces here very often. I think it's closer to a 4bet than a call, but i'm unsure how he'd play a flopped set or A4 without being at the table with him. He doesn't have AJ+ b/c of no 3bet pf, so i'd probably cap since he doesn't think I have an ace.
NH.
Surf
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