[Mempho]

[ QUOTE ]
It's not limited to preflop. The more aggressive a game is, the bigger the swings of short term luck will be.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed


[ QUOTE ]
The short-term luck factor is both good and bad. It no doubt convinces a lot of losing players that they are really winners who have gotten unlucky somehow. They attribute the times of short-term good luck to their skillful play, while blaming times of short-term bad luck on luck alone (even though their decisions were far from optimal). On the other hand, it means that a winning player needs a bigger bankroll to withstand the short-term fluctuations and more psychological strength to avoid conflating short-term results (good or bad) and long-term winning strategies.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed

[ QUOTE ]
I don't believe that a higher luck factor is necessarily correlated to a decrease in skill. I think you are biased to seeing folding in a medium pot as a major skill in limit HE. In limit HE, folding moderately strong hands is not the key skill to the game. (That is a much more important skill in no-limit HE.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Well....like I said in the example...we couldn't fold in that spot because of the pot size even though we were 90% sure we were beaten. I think what you mean to say is that it is not important in games with relatively large pots...which aggressive games normally have postflop. I think good postflop players are always aware of the mistake of laying down incorrectly. If someone doesn't understand this, he is not a good postflop player. I have seen many people, however, lay down just to save a bet or two...which is generally bad policy on its own merits. I think you are arguing that "knowing when to stay in" is a skill. I agree with that. Many players basically play their entire game preflop, however. When they see the flop only with correct values in aggressive games, it becomes difficult to create mistakes if they are playing no-fold 'em in big pots. How many times have you nailed the someone's hand exactly, knew he had nothing, and still couldn't get him to fold? This generally falls into the realm of FPS because a lot of people simply don't fold...because they feel tied to the pot because of the preflop action. These people are much more common than the quick folders.

[ QUOTE ]
In summary, I agree that the short-term luck factor does increase in aggressive games. But I also believe that skill plays a very large role in these games. The way that these two claims are reconciled is that it takes longer for skill to make itself apparent and separate winners from losers, but because of the skill needed in the game, it will definitely happen in the long run.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. I do think that variance is just as important as expectation, however...and sometimes more important. I do think, however, that playing in a game with fewer average bets per player allows for some extremely profitable opportunties. You can readily steal if you pick your pots, and players often make huge mistakes postflop that are easily exploited. For that reason, I think your expectation may, in fact, be higher for these games. Exceptions, of course, occur....such as when you are facing a complete maniac.