Re: Stars 15/30 - ATs
Here's my take.
He could have made one of two mistakes on this hand. He could have slowplayed Jx/AA/KK/what have you on the flop and turn - a passive mistake. Or, he could have bet the river with Ace-high - an aggressive mistake. I postulate that the average 15/30 player is more likely to make the latter mistake than the former. He might think that on the river, when I check, that he was guaranteed at least a split and he might get me to fold an ace. Who knows. Bad play, for sure, but quite possible.
But whatever. We are talking about two rare events, and our judgments of the actual probabilities are going to be off. I do think that 75% for having me beat as opposed to having ace-high is too high.
Will
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