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  #15  
Old 10-24-2005, 06:56 AM
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Default Re: Turn Decision #2

A reasonably tight range for him to 3-bet agains a steal would be AT - AK, KJ-KQ, 77-AA.

You are ahead of:
AT, AJ, AQ :
3 * 12 = 36 comboes:

You are behind these with 5 outs:
KJ,KQ,AK, 77, 99-QQ.
12+12+9+ 5*6 : 63 comboes

You are behind these with less or no outs :
88,KK,AA
3*3 = 9 comboes.

To this range, you are ahead on the turn 36/72 = One third of the time. Given that you have outs, that he might 3-bet a bigger range and that you get 2:8,5 when calling down turn and river, I think you cannot fold the turn unless you know that he wouldnt play the lesser hands in the above range like AT this way.

You could raise the turn, folding to a 3-bet, but I would call down, since we have out when behind.
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