Re: Stars 15/30 - ATs
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Every hand that beats us - any jack, any eight, AA-QQ, TT, and 99 - all of them raise either the flop or the turn.
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Good point. But since we're practically readless I think he's much more likely to have played a hand like TT/99/77 passive or slowplayed Jx/AA/KK (these hands shouldn't be too afraid of giving freecards), than he is betting A-high on the river since he know you'll check/call with an A. Otoh you stand to gain ~4BB by raising and get A-high to fold, but only lose 1BB if he actually has a hand that beat you.
A quick calc:
I assume he hold a better hand than yours when he betsthe river 75% of the time (TT/99 etc.). I assume he'll fold A-high 75% of the time, but always call with a hand that beats you.
Check/call:
EV: 0.5*7.5*0.25 - 1*0.75 = 0.18BB
Check/raise:
EV: 7.5*0.25*0.75 - 2*0.75 + 8.5*0.25*0.5*0.25 - 2*0.75 = 0.17BB
I think the chance of getting him to fold TT/99 makes the check/raise better, even if he does it very infrequently it will swing the cals by alot. I don't play 15/30 so please give me some feedback on my assumptions. And if I messed up the calcs somewhere. Reading your last post I think you believe he'll hold A-high more often on this river than 25%, but since I can't see that hand betting this river I'm not so sure. Bet/folding this river with A-high would really suck IMO (EDIT: villain bet/folding). Could agree he'll fold A-high more often than 75% if he bets the river though.
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