Re: JTs Flops Top Pair, Flop is Donked and PFR Still to Act
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Bet the turn and fold to a check-raise. You likely have very few outs when behind here and you are giving up little by folding if you get check-raised.
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Even against an AF of 3.5?
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A 16/10/3.5 is probably and at least somewhat competent TAG. A 3.5 agg. factor is often reflective of the fact that this opponent folds a fair amount. Given their pre-flop numbers, it is not suggestive of totally overwhelming, push-you-out-of-the-pot-no-matter-the-cost aggression.
Needless to say, it is not high enough for me to commit to putting two more big bets into the pot to see a showdown were I to be check-raised on the turn.
Again, I'll reiterate that: If your opponent is check-raising this turn on a draw, then you may just have to allow yourself to be outplayed this one hand. Mike McDermott's four-bet coup against Johnny Chan notwithstanding, getting outplayed (or outplaying someone) in one hand is not the end of the world. If you get check-raised on this turn, statistically speaking you are not going to have enough equity on average to continue and the correct play is to fold.
[Another important thing to note is that the turn card is not scary. Your opponent would have to be extremely ambitious to think that a check-raise is going to get you to fold a pair of Js or better given a blank turn card. So, in order to check-raise with a bluff he'd either have to have a severe case of FPS or think he has a very good read on you. These are both longshots until proven otherwise.]
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