[pokernicus]

Just because MP3 hasn't played a hand yet doesn't mean that he has a premium hand like AA or KK now. He might just have been getting really bad cards -- it has only been 30 hands, so it's too hard to tell. I'm sure we've all had spells where for (more than) 30 hands in a row we've gotten hole cards like 83o.

The fact that MP3 didn't cap pre-flop is worth noting -- it makes me think he doesn't have AA-QQ or even AKs. (Though I suppose people sometimes smooth call 3-bets with AA or KK in such situations to conceal the strength of their hand...)

The fact that he checked a flop containing the Ace after having been the pre-flop raiser means that he is either afraid of it (e.g., he has JJ), or he has a premium hand like a set of Aces. I probably bet the flop. You might either be ahead, or may even get a better hand like JJ to fold. If you get check-raised I'd probably get the heck out of Dodge since you're probably beat and it's going to be expensive to find out.