[Mempho]

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Depending on the situation, raising can either lower or increase the 'luck' factor. Like Andyfox says, if it's used to thin the field and increase your chance of winning a pot (albeit a smaller pot), it can reduce your variance.

But if you're raising AJs in the BB after 7 people have limped in, then it will have the opposite effect on your variance.

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I challenge this assertion. When you raise AJs in the BB after 7 people limp in you have an equity edge. As your equity increases, your variance isn't as negative. For example win rate 5, variance 10 = swings from -5 to 15. win rate 15, variance 10 = swings from 5 to 25. This is just an example of how increasing your win rate makes your variance less noticable, these numbers do not represent anything real.

Certainly by raising more often there are some effects which mean higher variance, but there are other effects that make that variance not as "painful".

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I understand the assertion you are making. Have there been any studies on how marginal preflop raises affect variance and expectation....certainly they increase expectation but do they do so to the point where they actually reduce the variance from not raising?