Re: Flop a joint, river pairs board
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Against a thinking stars player at this level, when hero almost full pots the turn, with the texture of the flop, then he may believe there's a good possibility that he's behind. I can see a set flat calling the flop, even if it's draw heavy, but the turn may have confused him. Is a thinking stars player going to limp JQ, or call a flush draw on the turn here, no. My river action completely depends on my read. If I think he's a donk, I'll check/call hoping he'll bluff. If he's a thinking crafty player, I bet/fold.
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This begs the question... would a good player call with a set if he believes hero has the straight? He's only got 10 outs on the turn and calls nearly a pot sized bet... and, he can't expect to necessarily get paid off if the board pairs. So, the difficulty here is that a 'good' Stars players might already be out of the hand.
I also think a crafty player might have air and be planning to bet if either the board pairs or a heart hits.
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