[LostMyCaseMoney]

Well I get hard-ons reading some of your HHs but I hate the way you played this the whole way.

On the flop you make a pot size bet (a little over for the sticklers, yes but not much). I'm guessing this has been a common move for you throughout the tournament and is the play you would be expected to do postflop by Dan. Dan now overbets the pot. What hands can you put him on here? Considering your extrememly lag image a very wide range I would say. Dan uses his tight image to his advantage and is defintely going to try to exploit it against a LAG like you who will even laydown monsters in this situation.

AA-QQ, KQ, Q9, 89s, Any Jack, A Ten w/ an over, T3, 33, and a pure bluff.

I feel you give him credit for having a much narrower range of hands then he actually has. You were mainly concerned with 33, and while the TJ presents draws on the board from Dan’s POV I don't think it is likely he would push a set this hard since right now he has no information on the strength on your hand. With a raise this big he is likely to get you off a hand. With a smaller raise you will likely call and lead the turn. However, since this is being played on a very high level you get a lot what does he think, I think, he thinks, I think and on and on so reads, the players mindset, and all the previous hands become crucial but just viewing it on paper I’m trying to do what I can.

When the turn comes you lead again and Dan puts in a respectable raise. This narrowing his range down to:

AA-QQ, AJ, KJ, QJ, JT, J4, J3, T3, 33

The only hand in this range that beats us is 33, which I felt Dan wouldn’t be likely to play that way on the flop, but again I’m going from one cold hand with no other info so your reads are better then what I can say. The problem is the way this was played the only way to further define is to re-raise which will get AK-AJ, AA-QQ and leave the hands JT, J3, 33, and J4 and T3 which you hadn’t mentioned. I feel you’re ahead here. Regardless of what the river is it will likely be an expensive street to see the showdown and your fold came simply down to an ICM evaluation in your eyes, which I can understand, but I feel you made the incorrect choice.

I think you failed to define your hand and gave Harrington too much credit for a holding. I haven’t had any sleep in four days but once I’m rested I’ll post some potential alternative lines and do some work on the ICM (or someone else can save me the trouble and do all of this while I sleep) and everyone can go from there.


On a side note you’re somewhat of a professional idol to me so if you could let me know what you think of my reasoning now and in the future or just point out everything I type is incoherent babble that would be cool.