Re: stupid hu question
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To answer this question, you need to compare three probabilities: (1) the likelihood that you are dominating a smaller pair, (2) the likelihood he is drawing live with a lone ace, and (3) the likelihood you are dominated by AA.
Possibility #3 happens, but oh well. So mostly I think it is #1 vs. #2. Your answer here in evaluating this probability is going to depend a lot on your read of the opponent.
The important thing to mention here is that against a lone ace, you are only a 70:30 favorite. So your hand becomes a lot stronger on the flop. Because my hand value is significantly defined by the flop, Im probably not willing to go more than 5 bets preflop. Absent a good read on my opponent, I'll give up the preflop advantage in exchange for postflop clarity.
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With all due respect I think you're making this way too complicated. If the only choice was between possibility 1 and 2 you would happily put it all in pre-flop. The threat of possibility 3 is the only reason to stop raising.
Apart from the cards themselves, what you'd really like to know here is what is opponent's answer to the OP's question?
/mc
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