[Borodog]

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You need to have played with this guy a ridiculous number of times to make this play, and even then it's probably wrong imo.

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Well, I guesstimate that I had something around 3000 hands with him live. I felt confident that if a spade came he would lay down a significant fraction of the time, which is all I need for the play to be profitable.

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It's not really fair to make judgements about live reads, but I suspect you are overthinking the situation and this is just fps.

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That is always possible. It's one of the reasons I posted the hand. It's great that it worked and all, but did I get lucky? I'm not sure. I trusted my read and went with it though.

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Btw, why does he have to have AK on the flop? Why can't he have other aces?

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He can't have other aces because he doesn't 3 bet me preflop with anything less than AK and JJ+, and has never 3 bet me on the flop with less than top kicker.

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His fold of AK is absolutely terrible too.

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I agree. But he's very weak tight, or else I wouldn't have tried to make the play. He makes terrible folds all the time, particularly against me, because he knows if I'm betting or raising I'm usually winning. As I said, he prides himself on making these folds. He thinks they're the mark of an "expert player." He doesn't realize usually winning still means he only has to be good a small fraction of the time to make calling profitable.

I will say he is the only player at the table I would make this play against, and also that I have made reads at the game that have proved costly because the opponent I put in a little box had evolved and improved his game out of that box. That may be an argument for not trying this sort of play.