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You have much flawed logic my friend. I'm afraid you don't have much of an understanding of typical Party players. In your "Hands we're ahead of that call," you have to include almost any pair. This is a clear easy value bet, and it's not even close.

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I agree it’s not even close, betting is clearly wrong here. When we assign our opponents hands based on basic hand reading skills it is blatantly obvious we are not ahead ~35% of the time.

"You have to include any pair" A loose/passive opponent is never raising 22-88 (even 99 is very questionable) pf from UTG. It seems like you're conveniently forgetting the preflop raise. I believe my possible holdings analysis is quite accurate, and you have given me no reason to believe otherwise.

In my opinion, this is a very clear check.