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As for the river bet, if you compare the number of times he calls with a hand I can beat to the times he folds, calls and beats me, or raises and beats me, the river bet is pretty -EV.

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Gerry,

River bet is only -EV if you plan on check-folding, or you think he will check through a hand that beats you (which isn't going to happen). If you plan on check-calling, betting is much, much better (+EV) in this spot.

Nigel

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Perhaps. I have to think about this.