Re: (11) A play I dont see very often
For your play to break even:
Currently: 650 (ICM: .088)
ALL IN
A) Everyone folds (x%)
Hero: 785 (ICM: .1044)
B) Get Called (MP1) (1-x%)
i) 2 Overcards (55-45) (80% of the time when you get called)
55%: Hero: 1405 (ICM: .1741)
45%: Hero: 0
i) Overpair (20% of the time you get called)
20%: Hero: 1405 (ICM: .1741)
80%: Hero: 0
.55*.1741= .095755
.2*.1741= .03482
.8*.095755 + .2*.03482= .083568 ICM when you get called
x*.1044 + (1-x)*.083568 = .088
.1044x + .083568 - .083568x = .088
.020832x=.004432
x=.2127
You have to fold your opponent 21.3% of the time to break even vs. a fold. I'm sure you'll do that, but you are passing up a very favorable opportunity to hit your set cheaply against loose opponents.
No one is can stop you from making this play, but I'd listen to the advice being given. As I said, +EV isn't the end of the argument. There can be a better, more +EV answer out there.
-SonnyJay
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