[fnord_too]

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yea duunno why he posted it there. Guess more people like his folds there. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

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I think the fold is fine. He and Dan both have healthy stacks.

He bet the flop, could be read as a steal, Dan raises, could be read as a resteal. Gigabet calls, that suggests strength.

Giabet leads the turn strongly and gets raised. Now let's just cosider some points here:
Gigabet is playing his hand like it is strong. Yes, he can represent hands and bully and bluff, but he is meeting resistance from a tight aggressive player and keeps coming. Dan keeps escalating, that is probably not a bluff.
Dan knows that one pair hands are not that strong, so I think when gigabet puts Dan on his hand range, he's probably pretty accurate.
Dan has position, which means he is in a good spot to win the most/lose the least. Gigabet does not really have any clear good line here that I see.

If you don't like the fold, what is your plan for the rest of the hand? Personally, I don't want to play a huge pot OOP against a WC player who is most likely strong. At this point in the hand, there is 58.4K in the pot, it is 18K back to Gigabet, and he has a stack of right about 100K. If he calls, his stack is 82K and the pot is 72K, yikes! Pushing seems like the only alternative, but I doubt he gets called there unless he is beat, and there is a good chance from the action that he is beat.

If we could put Dan on a range and determine his response to a push with that range, we could work out the EV of pushing here. If Gigabets range is correct, and this is how he would play all those hands all the time (meaning the action does not favor one over the other), Giga's pot equity is 60%, but I really doubt Harrington plays J3 this way on the turn most of the time. Any way, lets say he folds J3, calls the rest. Then:
6 times Giga wins 58K
4 times Giga wins 20K
3 times Giga loses 100K

That makes pushing worth just over 10K given the assumptions from a TC perpective. (I don't know how many players are left or payouts or stuff like that, nor is there a widely accepted model for determining cahshing equity with a lot of players left in an MTT, so I don't know if this is +cashing EV or not).

At any rate, there's a lot of supposition here. Like I said, I would guess Dan calls the turn with J3 and plays the river most of the time. I also think he could have something like J4, but again, I would think he calls behind with that. Also, he could be on a stone bluff here, but I think that is not too likely, since he is hyper-conscious of getting into blind v blind disaster hands, and Giga's line suggests a lot of strength on a board that is likely to hit a sb completer. Also, maybe he took an odd line with AA-TT, but it is doubtful.

I guess I'll end my rambling by saying that Dan raising the turn here, with these stacks and pot size, is really strong and should be given a lot of respect. That was a bet intended to build a pot (or a bluff). Gigabet calling it will make it very hard to get away from the hand later, regardless of what he has. When a good player makes a bet like that, you need to really think about why he would do that. A good hand is going to call the turn here most of the time, it takes a very strong or very weak hand to raise it.