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Old 10-20-2005, 09:10 AM
chopchoi chopchoi is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 378
Default Re: AQs in a bloated pot facing a turn raise.

I wouldn't be able to fold here, though that is probably the better play.

An aggressive player might raise here with 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], but you sid he was passive post flop, so you have to figure he has a made hand, and we cam be pretty damn sure it is something better than AT. Either a set or 2 pair. If he has a set, you're dead. If he has 2 pair, it all depends on which two. He's probably not limping fromn EP with J8, so you have to put him on A5s, A8s, or AJ. If he has AJ, you only have 3 outs. If he has A8 you have 6 outs, and vs. A5 you have 9 outs. This is assuming the cold-caller is on draw. For instance, if the raiser has A8, and the cold-caller has a J, you're still drawing to 3 outs. If the third player has an OESD, your Q outs are no good, and if he has 2 diamonds, those aren't outs either.

Since you aren't going to be able to fold on the river if you call the turn, you need to analyze this situation in terms of showdown cost. It will cost you 2 big bets to show this hand down, and you will probably win about 15 big bets (not including the 2 you need to put in) if you take the pot. So, you're pot odds are roughly 7.5:1. You need 7 outs to call. I don't think you have that many.
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