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Old 10-20-2005, 12:21 AM
Oneiros Oneiros is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 2
Default Re: Top pair, open ended, 3 way

I actually don't see how to access the poll results without voting myself, but some good responses, not sure 100% if I agree, but I lean toward call or all in myself, figuring any raise less substantial but proportional to the pot will leave me more or less pot committed, and clearly if I can take it down now I want to. Also, because I see it having a 60-75% chance of getting about half the hands that are ahead of me right now to fold. I did an analysis like what Dan Harrington discusses in HoH-II, but using pokerstove to calculate equity for the range of hands (and I'm 99% sure stove does it a way Harrington would approve).

I started by making a list of realistic holdings I'm ahead of and one I'm behind, and noted (correct me if I'm wrong anywhere) how many ways they could have each based on cards seen:
Ahead of-
<ul type="square"> [*]AJ (12 possible)[*]AT (12 possible)[*]A9 (16 possible)[*]A8 (16 possible)[*]KJ (9 possible)[*]KT (9 possible)[*]99 (6 possible)[/list]That's 80 possible holdings I'm ahead of...

Behind-
<ul type="square"> [*]AA (6 possible)[*]KK (3 possible)[*]QQ (1 possible)[*]JJ (3 possible)[*]TT (3 possible)[*]QJ (6 possible)[*]QT (6 possible)[*]JT (6 possible)[*]AK (9 possible)[*]AQ (9 possible)[/list]That's 52 hands I need to catch up to., about 40% of the total hands out there.

All in against one of these hands, on average I'm 60% to win if called, but of course many I'm ahead of will fold fair percentage, and I think many I'm currently behind may too given the board, most likely QT, JT and AQ, and a fair chance for QJ too. That's 21-27 of the 52 hands, nearly half, and if I'm called by them or better hands, i'm 35% or better to win against most, and drawing dead to none. Against one of the hands I'm ahead, average equity is 80% heads up, 70% against both. The one's I'm behind, 30% equity on average, against all of them 60% avg equity. So I'm very tempted by the all in, but given position calling may be better, I dunno, but its such a strong hand and strong draw, seems like I should play strong... maybe pot raise is stronger though.
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