Re: Lottery at the +EV Point
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"1. The lottery is NOT 340m it IS 160.4m. They always tell you the annuitized value because it is a larger number. The cash payout today is the samller number. "
Knock off the taxes and you net makes it -EV.
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I also think you guys are seriously underestimating the chance at a split pot... curious if anyone has data, but my guess would be that 40 to 60% of powerball jackpots > $100 million have been split... sometimes three or four ways.
Of course, you CAN affect your probability of splitting the jackpot: Pick only numbers greater than 31... so that you won't split with all the rubes who use dates to choose their numbers.
My guess is that this drawing is still -EV, certainly if taxes are accounted for.
What's funny to me, is that most state lottery players are in the lowest income classes, making these drawings a de facto "poor tax"... but when the jackpot gets big, it moves up the income strata and middle to upper-middle class players jump in the game too.
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