[Shillx]

The inflection point in this hand is roughly when the pot is offering 10.3:1 (I assumed that the villian has two split, a set or trips). This means that you have to call the turn check/raise when the pot is at least this big...even if you know that you are behind. You then call the river if it improves your hand and you fold when it doesn't. I call it an infection point because there is no way for it to be profitable when the pot is below that critical value and vice versa. Currently the pot is 6.5:1 after the check/raise, so you don't have odds to see the river if you assume that you are always beat here.

So in order to continue you have to give some probability to either semibluff or a worse ace. If he could have neither you have to fold here. Even if he could be on a semibluff you will still have to fold sometimes because it implies that you have to see a showdown.

So let's say that you are a 10:1 dog 90% of the time and a 4:1 favorite 10% of the time. Your pot equity here is 16%.

EV = .16*9.5bb - 2bb = ~ -0.5bb/100

So in this case you would have to fold eventhough you are giving the pot away to a semi-bluff 10% of the time. These are the types of plays that you should be making against other people.

Edit - Call the river in the hand you present.