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Old 10-19-2005, 01:22 PM
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Default Re: Party 40K: How many coin flips do you have to survive on average?

6 or 7 is not right. That would imply an ITM% of ((1/2)^7)/100 < x < ((1/2)^6)/100 which is about 1%. As many people here have pointed out, an ITM of ~15% is good. When I money a MTT I might win an initial coinflip that puts me a risk of losing the tournament, but once you start accumulating chips you can safely call coinflips and lose the hand without totally losing the tournament. So I'd estimate around 2 initially on average (probably between 1 and 2). There are also times when I just outplay my opponents without getting it all in on a flip situation. So if you don't want to quantify it I would say "it depends" but it is most definitely a lower number than you guessed. You have to understand that moneying a MTT is not just about winning coinflips.
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