Re: new strategy?
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thank you all for your responses but i do still think its a +cEV push
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This is well and good, but just because it's +cEV doesn't mean it's the right play. You're looking for the most +EV play. There are times that situations arise where there are 2 +EV plays, but you're looking for the better of the two.
I did a very rough ICM calculation, which I believe illustrates this point.
1. You fold, one player picks up the pot with a flop bet.
You: 1490 (ICM: .1105)
1 Other: 1630
1 Other: 1500
6 Others: 1480
2. You push all in
2a. Everyone folds (40% of the time)
You: 1640 (ICM: .1203)
1 Other: 1500
7 Others: 1480
2b. 1 person calls (60% of the time)
You win
You: 3120 (ICM: .2092)
1 Other: 1500
6 Others: 1480
You lose
ICM: 0
For all-in move to be equal to folding:
.1105= .4(.1203) + .6[x(.2012) + (1-x)(0)]
.1105= .04812 + .12072x
.06238= .12072x
x= .517
This is clearly very flawed (ie. only compares it to you folding, assumes you get folded to 40% of the time, ignores situations where you get 2 callers, etc.). But, for the sake of this example, you need to be almost 52% to win when you get called for it to be a +$EV play. If you're getting called 60% of the time, it's fair to assume you'll be ahead this percentage of the time.
Here's the thing: that doesn't mean there isn't a better path. +EV isn't +EV, but rather you're looking for the best decision. This shows that your push is superior to folding, but what about calling and taking a flop? You get away for very little when you miss and can more confidently bet when you get a favorable flop. If people would be willing to call your all in and play as poorly as you suggest, why wouldn't they be willing to come along with a worse A or Q or even worse when you hit?
In limit cash games you sometimes bet when you know you're giving correct odds for your opponent to call. While this isn't a good situation, it's better than the alternative, which is letting your opponent draw for free. The flip side of this is what you have here. You can push now and take down some chips, but it may not be better than the alternative. I'd be willing to bet you that you could get a much better return on calling here and getting chips in as a bigger favorite later on.
-SonnyJay
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