Re: TT gets capped.
[ QUOTE ]
This thread has been really informative for me.
I typically play too aggressively in spots like these.
I am afraid of folding to a hand like AK, so I make a test raise on the flop, even though I know villain has the big PP more often than he has AK.
It's better to occasionally fold to a worse hand here (on the turn UI) then getting 3-bet with AA-QQ when you have outs.
[/ QUOTE ]
No, I don't think folding the turn is a good idea. On the turn, the pot is 6 BB if you call the flop. Let's assume that Villain bets the river, and we plan to call that. We would then have to be good 2/7 of the time. Let's give him a possible hand range: {AA-JJ/AK/AQ}. That gives us:
AA, KK, JJ - 6 combinations each = 18 combinations
QQ - 3 combinations
AQ - 12 combinations
Behind: 33 combinations
AK - 16 combinations
Ahead: 16 combinations
Which is much more often than 2/7. If he has AK, he has 6 outs to draw out on you on the river, whereas you have 4 outs to a gutshot, and partial outs to a set. I'm gonna assume that they roughly cancel each other out. So as it stands, we are going to win this pot 16/49 (32.7% of the time), which is greater than 2/7 (28.6% of the time), so this should be a calldown.
If we tighten up his range to exclude AQ or open up his range to include AJ, we should be calling down even more often.
|