Re: Good LAG Spot or Just Chip Spewing?
1150:70 = 16.5:1
pokenum -h kc kd - 5h 6s
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Kc Kd 1378058 80.48 328977 19.21 5269 0.31 0.806
6s 5h 328977 19.21 1378058 80.48 5269 0.31 0.194
Now, since these odds are from PF to the RIVER... and the fact that hero obviously improves to beat the overpair on later streets some percentage of the time (Particularly when flopping one pair or a straight draw), I think we can probably extrapolate that the odds of outflopping him are a substantially worse.
Not to mention redraws when he DOES outflop him, particularly with two pair.
If we go to factor in times when he outplays him after the flop....it might get a bit closer, but I imagine that the times it doesn't work probably offset any advantage there, anyway.
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