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Old 10-17-2005, 09:15 PM
Harv72b Harv72b is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Baltimore, MD
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Default Re: Conceptual Problem with AK/Turn check-raise.

The flop raise is completely reasonable. What I don't like is the turn bet.

There are absolutely zero draws to be found on this flop. So, when Villain leads into you on the flop, that means that either:

A) He's flopped a monster (99, maybe 33 in the hole) and wants to get as much money in the pot as possible, so he's feeling you out to see how much you like your hand, or...
B) He slowplayed AA preflop with the intention of taking you for extra bets postflop, or...
C) He's holding some other pocket pair, and wants to get you off of your (presumed) overcards, or...
D) He's F.O.S. and representing a huge hand, in the hopes he can push you off a better hand.

Since you have no read on the villain, you can't lean towards any of the four...however, with the pot now standing at 10.25 BBs, you easily have odds to call the turn c/r with a 6-outer. So you can't really fold to the turn c/r, as it would only be correct to do so if he held AA, KK, 99, 22, A9, K9, or a 3, specifically. The problem is that, once you call the turn c/r, you will now be getting 12:1 pot odds to call one more on the river, which you're probably going to do (he'll be F.O.S. at least 1 in 12 times). So in reality, calling the turn c/r pretty much commits you to calling another bet on the river. Again, though, without a read on the villain and with this being a pretty harmless looking board, you pretty much have to call down.

What I like a lot better in this scenario is taking your free card on the turn and calling a bet on the river UI, to head off a possible bluff. If you had a read on villain as being passive and/or straightforward postflop, that would change to taking the free card and folding to a river bet UI.

The only time it's worth it to bet the turn here is when you feel confident that you'll get villain to fold a better hand (TT or 88, maybe), and without a read I don't think you can expect an unknown player to make that fold on this board (and in a fairly large pot). If he has a worse hand than you, you're better off trying to induce a river bluff (odds are extremely good that he's drawing to only 3 outs if this is the case) rather than trying to bully him out of the pot. And you hate to put yourself into this kind of a situation (almost being forced to call down with ace high after a turn c/r).
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