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Old 10-17-2005, 08:50 PM
sillyarms sillyarms is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 44
Default Re: Two overcards with Flush Draw outside bubble

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I have A K and we are currently right outside the bubble. I am in pretty good position in the tournament as i have a little over the average. I raise from the button and get called only by the UTG who had initially just called. Flop comes T 6 2 . UTG checks to me and i bet the pot, he puts me all in betting about 3 times the pot. I have posted hands like this before and been told that if this is in a cash came nearly always with two overs and a flush draw on the flop this is where you want to get all your money in the pot. However, in a tournament this type of decision is where the primary purpose of a tournament comes in to play. Do you make the call where you most likely have a positive expected value in an effort to accumulate chips or do you make the lay down because you are going to need to catch cards to win the hand and go for survival instead of chip accumulation? If i lose the hand i still have a descent size chip stack. Which move do you think has a higher expected value?

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As a call I like the move alot less. Had he been the one to bet pf and I were the one raising all in and had some folding equity. I would like the move alot more.

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I'm not sure this is correct, I used my own code, but if villian has AT,KT,QT,JT, or TT+ (in other words we are behind on the flop) I find the following percentages:

Hero 47.8% to Villian 52.2%

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you have to take into account the percentage of the time your opponet is bluffing too also hands like AA, QQ, JJ, 66.
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