[DcifrThs]

alrighty. Dr. Alspach responded and gave me an article he wrote that gets at all the probabilities except for straights and flushes

first though, his comments:

"I am in the midst of three pressure laden situations so I do not have
much time right now to write anything substantial. On the other hand,
my most recent Canadian Poker Player magazine article deals with part
of what you want to know. It is the last article currently at my
website under CPPM. Take a look at that and hopefully you can decipher
what I wrote (under space pressure). (By the way, in the games I play,
I am going to play a fair number of hands at 18-to-1.)

Wednesday I leave for six days in Nova Scotia and on November 2nd I
leave for three weeks in Oz (Australia). The travelling is adding to
the pressure."

so i went to this article and found the following:

given 2 cards of different rank x,y; probability of flopping a:

EDIT: i read the #s from the player holding a pair X,X real #s follow....

1)quads: .0001
2)full: .00092
3)trips: .01571
4)2pairs: .0404
5)onepair: .4041
6)none; .5388

so adding again (with correct figues) 2pr plus we get: .05713

now its wayyyyyyy closer than the 28% EARLIER lol...clearly i didn't doulbe check my work...as i tend not to do for my posts...oh well, sorry guys...so back to the analysis, i think calling with any 2 here can't be that bad...but i still think i'll toss some hands b/c...

Notice though, that Dr. Alspach states that getting 18:1 he'll play "a fair number of hands." that doesn't mean any 2. he's busy now so i'll let him be but id like to knoww hat hands he mucks.

Barron