[crunchy1]

I bet the turn when the flop bet gets me HU on the turn. Against your opponent you can easily fold to a turn raise, sometimes you'll win the pot and many other times you can check behind on the river and see showdown UI if you don't hit.

In this case with your read it's a pretty easy river fold. Even if you are good 1-in-6.5 times - some of that 15% is going to be a chop with another ace.