View Single Post
  #81  
Old 10-16-2005, 06:03 PM
Nikanoru Nikanoru is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 7
Default Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River

I think the point of the hand is just that people are going broke on their middling strong hands like this. The way our opponent bets is representing a hand that is either much stronger or a hand that is worse but is willing to keep betting. If we push before the river, we are losing value in a lot of ways: We lose the most when we're behind(and we bust out, too, which makes this exponentially worse), and we win the least when we're ahead, unless we got lucky and he flopped a lower 2 pair or gets stubborn with AQ. I don't think this hand is really about putting the other guy on a range(which is the easy part of the hand) or about Gigabet having some amazing read on the dude. They would've included that in the original post, I don't think they're making these posts with arrogant intent.

I thought calling was totally standard for both the flop and the turn, and I was suprised how many people wanted to push right away. This river is very interesting, though. I think the whole hand really shows off a very important concept: Gambler's ruin. When you hit 0, you're out. Obviously you want to avoid that, but I think this hand is meant to show off how much and when. My first thought when I saw the river action was "Yes, got him! PUSH!", but the more I think about it the more I don't like pushing. Last 900 chips, you gain very little actual equity for putting them in when ahead and you lose so badly when you're behind, because it busts you out, even though I think that's a very small percent of the time. With 900 left you still have a chance, and with either 3400 or 4300, either way you're still an above average but not huge stack.

I don't know, I might just push the river anyway, because I'd be pretty shocked to see a better hand and the 900 chips are still a pretty decent chunk. my mental models for this are still a little rough.
Reply With Quote