Re: Theory: Gigabet\'s \"bands\" and \"The Finch Formula\" Grand Unificati
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I really don't understand? Doubling up oin the first hand in a 100 person tournament should increase your chances of winning by 100%, and thus make them 2%.
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Not quite. Your stack is not exactly 2Q, as Q has increased by the elimination of one player. The new Q is T/(N-1) where T is the total chips in play, and N is the starting number of players. Your stack after doubling is 2T/N, which is slightly smaller than 2Q after the elimination.
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This will however not increase your EV by 100%, assuming the tournament isn't winner take all.
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As I've said repeatedly, I'm not calculating EV. Just estimating odds of winning.
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I have a monkey wrench to throw into the formula.
What if your in the middle of the tournament. Everybody has the same stack size, but the blinds are large enough where if you push from a position not in the blinds AND your called by another player not in the blinds AND the blinds fold, by doubling up you have greater than 2Q because of the 1.5 bb's extra you have picked up.
Correct me if I am wrong but you might need to add a term to somehow account for the blinds relative to the average stack size.
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