[deception5]

Very well thought out response as always. A few small things.

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We flop top pair 3828/19600 = 19.5% of the time. So we're a 4:1 dog to getting a good top pair. That's pretty far from the 33% number you were giving for estimate. The reason for the difference is that we're not concerned with catching "a pair", but we're interested in "top pair" (because if we have second pair, the board is very likely going to have an ace or king, and we're likely in trouble if we get any action from anyone in the hand).


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I did make some reference to this but I was just saying we'd flop a pair 33% of the time and that very often it would be top pair since are cards are both on the high end. When an overcard flops we aren't necessarily sunk but we will certainly win much less often.

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The other players. It's very hard to make estimates on what they will flop and what they will do with the flops that they get. This tends to hurt us rather than help us.


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As far as the other players go - this can be a positive and a negative. With more players we will win less often but on the other hand we will win larger pots as they call down with flush/straight draws and hands that we dominate (which can be reasonably often since they did not raise preflop).