Re: AA in mutliway pot theory
A multiway pot is not likely to consist solely of top pairs. Chances are you're playing against some suited connectors and smaller cards. AA wins 36% of the time against, say, JT, 98, 76 and 54, each suited in different suits. That's extra EV of only 80%. Of course, that's extreme, but against a variety of hands, not just top pairs, someone is very likely to improve.
However the real loss in value comes because only one of those hands will bet after the flop (unless one has a straight draw and another has a flush draw, or maybe someone flops a set). So the pot collects five preflop bets, but only 2 post-flop bets. When AA wins, it will often collect no post-flop bets. When it loses, it will often lose to someone with nuts who can raise all the way, and bluff as well.
Out of 100 hands, the 36 pots AA wins will probably be not much larger than if it went heads up against KK, they may even be smaller. But the 64 pots it loses will cost it as much or more as the pots it loses heads up. So multiway it wins half as often, wins only a little more when it wins, and loses more when it loses.
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