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Old 10-15-2005, 05:49 PM
ChrisW ChrisW is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 21
Default Re: All-in hand rankings for short stacks

[ QUOTE ]
If you are thinking of folding a small pair, you are better off pushing it, even if people know what you have.

It is not necessarily bad to push some hands, standard raise some hands, and limp others. Your opponents may not be able to tell what type of hand you have by your actions. Say you push from mid position with small pairs, ATs AJ, KQ, KJs, and some suited connectors.

[/ QUOTE ]

After an hour of math, I have determined that if we assume

a) five players yet to act

b) antes totalling 1 BB

c) that the opponents will figure out approximately what you are doing and call you on a range of about 77+, AQs+

d) that a third player will enter the pot only with JJ+

moving in on the hands in your range (I assumed "some suited connectors" included QJs to 76s) would show a profit of .8 BB over folding. Tweaking the calling ranges slightly does not really affect the number, as the increased/decreased chance of being called virtually cancels out the decreased/increased chance of winning when called.

Of course, the alternative to the betgo all-in strategy is not to fold all of these hands. With five players yet to act, most players would raise AJo and ATs, with 88/77 possible at tight tables. Those are very effective raising hands when they are the weakest in your range . If your range is 88+, ATs+, KQs, the only hands which are preflop favorites against your range are AK and JJ+, so the opponents will often be forced to fold and concede the pot.

88, AJo, and ATs make up almost 25% of betgo's move-in hands. So, if making a normal raise with those hands would show a 1.25 BB profit on average (that is, half of the dead money in the pot), the real chip EV of the betgo all-in strategy is only .5 BBs, a 3.33% increase in stack size.

All-in with 15 BB is an unacceptable risk for such a small gain. You're out of the tournament about 1/5 of the time on this play. So, you risk losing the opportunity to make later +EV plays, plus your edge is not signifigant enough to overcome the rake in the long term.

I do agree that a player who is weaker than the game might want to play in the way that betgo describes. However, no consistent winners will play this way.
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