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If the BBJ hit frequency is indeed once per 400K hands, that would mean the BBJ would be hit every ~$120-140K on average, since each raked hand contributes 0.50 to the BBJ, and assuming 60-70% of hands raked. So the current BBJ will probably be hit before it gets to $800K.

Anyone else made an estimate of the BBJ frequency?


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Your numbers jibe with mine. . . I did a statistical estimate dervied from pulling the numbers on the Bad Beat Winners page for several months. . . I concluded that it was very likely that the "equity value" for the jackpot was between $100,000 and $120,000, when including the chance of simply being dealt in at the table.

IOW, when the pot is around $110,000, the value of the jackpot opportunity is around $.05 per raked hand, which happens to be the cost of the jackpot rake.

I don't recall what numbers I came up with for the actual jackpot frequency. . . The only number I remember is the $100k-$120k range for parity, which is, frankly, all I really need to know.