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Old 10-07-2003, 11:44 PM
Zetack Zetack is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 656
Default Re: Thoughts on Expected Value

Hey Lex, just an update on the Aces...after that streak of winning only one of six with em, I'm now up to (including the one of six) 8 of my last 15. So that's seven of nine since then, (and last six in a row). Poker's a funny game....I wonder if I'm doomed to go on a loosing streak with em now...

Just goes to show...I felt pretty negative about em when I was two out of nine....winning six times in a row with em tends to make you feel positive...in the end I figure they probably will wind up winning about as much as they are supposed to.

It's clear to me you've done some reading and thinking about poker....have you read Lee Jones' "Winning Low Limit Hold 'em"? I think you might find it very helpful.

I've been thinking about your statement that you are realizing that A-6off is "trouble". I wonder if you are clear on why? If you are I apologize if this seems condescending to you, but if you understand why it seems to me that it leads you indirectly to an understanding of the vulnerability of pocket aces and perhaps that would help you not to get tilty when they crack.

I think of a normal "hit" on the flop as it pairing one of your cards. Flopping more than that--your flush draw, open ended straight, set or trips...whatever-- is getting hit really hard by the flop. So on a normal "good" flop you hit one of your cards. With an A-6 off what do you like when the flop hits you?

If you hit a six...well that's interesting but likely a lot of cards are coming (and a couple probably came on the flop) that beat a six if anybody pairs em. On the other hand, if an ace comes on the flop you are certainly beat if anybody else holds an ace...and somebody else is likely to hold an ace since in low limit people tend to play almost any ace. Almost any hole card beats your six kicker.

So, winning small pots and losing big pots is not the reason one doesn't like A-6, its simply a symptom of how weak a starting hand it is. All lousy starting hands fit into that category. You can't bet either of the pairs you make with confidence, so you are in the position of checking and calling (small pot city) and hoping for a second pair or trips hitting you on the turn or river. The only hands you tend to win with it are ones where nobody else makes anything at all (or occaisionally somebody who makes a king pair when you pair the aces, who thinks that you don't have an ace because you have to play so cautiously.) And of course when you get lucky on the turn or river. (8.4-1 against improving your hand on each).

Hey, I know in low limit you see a ton of flushes, straights, boats, etc. But even in low limit, top pair, top kicker is how you build your stack. With, say A-K not only do you have that when the flop hits you, EITHER of your two cards pairing gives you that. With A-6 NEITHER of your two cards is likely to give you that. Even a hand like A-10, though significantly weaker than A-K has a fair chance of giving you top pair top kicker.

Of course, with A-6 you instead of a normal piece of the flop you could catch a huge piece of the flop. Say trip sixes. (trip aces are nice, but you still have kicker worries...that three of the aces are accounted for lessens that somewhat, but if someone does have an ace, again you are almost certainly outkicked.) or two pair.

And that leads you to the problem with aces. Top pair top kicker is your bread and butter, but they lose to all those sets, and flushes and straights you see. Essentially, AA is no stronger than an A-Q when you hit an ace on the flop. Its top pair (and you can't get outkicked with the AA) but its still just top pair. A strong but very beatable hand.

And if you look at AA as essentially the same as hitting top pair top kicker (which apparently doesn't make you tilt when it gets beat) perhaps that would help you with your tilting problem.

Why do you raise with your A-k or A-Q? Its because they play better when they hit against a smaller field. Same with aces. If you can't limit the field they are strong, but very vulnerable. It's just a pair man...a great pair, but still just a pair.

I dunno, am I annoying you with this digression into stuff you probably already know?

Good luck,

--Zetack
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