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Old 10-12-2005, 07:21 PM
emptyshell emptyshell is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 33
Default Re: $2k PLO8, river nut low

I'd normally bet here and usually get quartered. The better move is to check behind, IMO. The two most likely hands he calls the flop are nut low + a pair (not good for you) or nut flush draw (better). The only benefit of a bet, then, would be in folding out a missed flush draw that happened to also have a pair. If he decided to call the flop with something like an overpair, he's likely calling the river after the low hits.

My feeling is that, if you bet, you are more likely to lose $325 then gain it. There is a wildcard, though, in that you will occasionally get called by a naked 2nd nut low. (You'll also occasionally get checkraised by A26, but your stack size makes this irrelevant.) So, against a loose player, I might change my suggestion.

All that being said, I have to admit I would jam here almost every time, especially given the shortish stack.
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