Re: series prices
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LAA is now -118 to win the series at Pinnacle.
This line move doesn't seem consistent. They were +165 as 2:30 pm yesterday (not sure if it moved since then), then won a game that they were big underdogs on the road to take a 1-0 lead.
Mathematically, the original series price basically said the CWS are 56% to win each game. However, the line today says they are 57%+ to win each game. This, despite the fact that they just played a game that they were (according to the lines) 65% to win. Meaning, before game 1 the line said CWS was about 54.5% to win games 2-7, and now it is saying they are 57%.
I have the "equivalent" line after game 1 as -132 for LAA.
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Interesting point. It still comes down to balancing the book and the publics perceptions. Whether or not value has been created is another matter. Whether or not those that bet LAA for the series should take this opp to hedge is also debatable and individual in nature.
Wish I'd made a bigger prop on LAA to win the pennant, earlier in the year.
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