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Old 10-11-2005, 02:03 PM
malorum malorum is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 141
Default Medical EV problem

In the UK a blood test is taken from pregnant women to determine their risk of having a downs syndrome child.

the test can identify the "high risk" of 1 in 300.

If the risk is in this region an amniocentesis is normally performed which will give a near certain diagnosis but carries with it a 1 in 50 chance of causing an abortion.

So the diagnositc proceedure has a higher risk of fetal death, than the risk of disability used to justify the test.

I am guessing the assumption is that the negative utility of having a disabled child is much higher than the negative utility of accidentally killing the unborn feotus.
An example of how "pure EV" is not applied in the scientific field.

thoughts plz
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