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Old 10-11-2005, 12:59 AM
Paragon Paragon is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Maryland
Posts: 42
Default Re: $109 Party - Tough Situation - Er, I think...

WOW, I am kinda surprised with people's responses here, especially insinuating it's weak tight to fold...?

I think what people are realizing is that the crux of the problem is your read on villain. Despite having no reads before the hand began, the 2x pot is a clue to something.

In any case, the real power of pair + flush draw hands are their fold equity, just like with AK pre flop. You prefer to win chips without a showdown; however, if called you are normally a slight favorite or slight dog, occasionally way ahead or behind. Now, how many of you would want to get TT vs AK allin pf at the start of every sng if you had the choice? It's a larger favorite with 56.5% equity than this flop that "hit me perfectly!!!" If A8s is against even the lowly 92o it just has 53.0% equity, and what worse hand can you reasonably expect to face? We call the first situation a "coin flip" somehow when it's not at all.

So... back to your read. Does it really say you have fold equity here? I guess that's up for debate. However, 2x pot leads me to think strength instead of donk overbet. I disagree with people saying sets or straights would be smart to "build the pot" when neither are safe out of position here. Yet, even if it is a good or bad player, both appear likely to call a push. So ultimately, if you expect a call and still prefer to push over the top here, well, you might as well be eager to get allin with pairs vs AK early. For some players that may be best, but I think you can find superior +EV edges later.

Some tangent thoughts:

With either a set or straight, I could make this bet, checkraise allin, or just open shove. It's similar to the concept with Ed Miller's latest magazine article. If they have nothing, well, they would have folded anyway. Every so often - in fact, I might say regularly - you get a call from a drawing hand like A8s that is secretly well behind in a huge pot that started out tiny. This prevents you from overestimating your ability to fold when you get sucked out on a later street AND from overestimating the amount you can extract on future streets. This is especially so with the number of scard cards: any 5,6,T,J makes a four-straight; any 7,8,9 pairs the board; and of course any club completes the flush. All of those cards add up to about half the deck, so I would get it allin asap with any monster holding here.
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