[cartman]

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Shouldnt we also consider how often the guy "fires the last barrel" ?

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Definitely we should. Some opponents will also not automatically bet the turn. On each street, we must re-estimate his hand range given that he bet. Against an opponent who will autobet the flop and the turn, his estimated hand range is the same as his estimated preflop range.

My indication that we are getting 5.25:2 odds on a call down is somewhat incorrect because of the "firing the third barrel" problem. If we always call the river when we call the turn (probably not a good idea) and he only bets the river when we are behind, then I guess we are actually only getting 4.25:2 on a call down, which would require us to be ahead far more often on the turn (27.8% instead of the 22.2% that getting 5.25:2 requires).

Of course he will not actually play perfectly on the river as he will sometimes bet with worse hands and check with better hands. But we will also sometimes fold a better hand. This is all very inexact and highly dependent on our continual assessment of his hand range on each street given that he bet.

My speculation is that most of the potential +EV that I miss by incorrectly folding weak pairs on the turn is from situations in which I would call the turn and then he would check behind on the river with nothing and I win. Against an opponent who always fires the third barrel, then the analysis above would be dead on in my opinion.

Even if he plays perfectly the river, though, I think the preliminary conclusions are still staggering. Unless I'm making a mistake in my reasoning, even if he plays perfectly on the river thereby reducing our odds to 4.25:2 to call down, we should call down with any hand that we estimate has at least 27.8% chance of being ahead on the turn. That means calling the turn bet with 23 on an AT28 board intending to also call a river bet against an opponent who will autobet the turn.

This is so astonishing to me that I feel like I must still be missing something. I suspect the correct move may be to call the turn bet and usually fold if he follows through on the river.

What do you guys think?

Thanks,
Cartman