View Single Post
  #21  
Old 10-10-2005, 09:02 PM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: $109 Party - Tough Situation - Er, I think...

Preflop: A lot of 2+2ers would fold, but I think that is too weak tight. You are in decent position, and are being offered good pot odds. A big pot that you win now can let you dominate your opponents later on. Good spot to do some prospecting.

Flop: The pot is 70, why would he bet 150? What could he possibly have?
1. Just an EP bluff, as the flop looks scary a lot of the people in the hand. If it is, the bet is too big to make this profitable, and the player is a bit of a donk. Best move, push over the top to take the pot now, and isolate the bluffer.
2. A hand that hit the pot somewhat, but definitely whants to take it down NOW. Ex. Pair and OESD
You are ahead of anyone with 7s or 8s, and behind 9s. If you are up against nines, you have flush outs. Pair +OESD is probably not folding to a push and you are a favorite against the range. So Push, and get yourself a powerful stack. Also, he may fold fearing a straight.
3. 2 Pair or set who wants draws to fold. He may fold to a push, but probably will make an angry call. You are pretty close to even VS the two pair range. So go ahead and put your chips in there. If you can build a big stack now, you can bully your opponents and really control the table.
4. Flopped a straight: I don't think this is very likely. Most people with that big of a hand are worried about creating a big pot. The bet is too big for him to be going for a bet/3bet. The most likely villian response to flopping a straight is a checkraise. If he has a straight, decide the likelyhood that you can stack him if you make the flush. After that calculate your implied odds and call/fold.

Looking at all of these possibilities, and which are most likely, I put 1-15% 2-30% 3- 50% and 4. 5%.

Villians have a tendency to call minraises, so the semi bluff loses a lot of value unless you push.

That is my decision, in this spot, Hero pushes all in over the top.

Edit: Now you made me look silly posting results just before I got my long winded reply in.
Reply With Quote